SCENARIO 1 – current methodology

1.1        The methodology for this calculation involves measuring the council’s supply of housing land against the requirement.

1.2        The requirement is 2,505 for 2013-2018. Points 1-7 above demonstrate the methodology.

1.3        The supply is 2,135 for 2013-2018, calculated from three sources:

·         Planning permissions that are yet to be implemented (1,144);

·         Strategic site allocations approved for development management purposes on 13 March 2013 (931); and

·         Saved greenfield allocations from the Maidstone Borough Wide Local Plan 2000 (60).

1.4        The shortfall between the requirement and supply figures is 370 units, which equates to 85.2% or 4.2 years housing land supply.

1.5        This scenario excludes a windfall allowance and non-implementation rate for the following reasons:

·         All planning permissions are monitored annually (1+ dwellings);

·         All allocations are monitored annually (5+ dwellings);

·         As such, there is a high degree of accuracy and certainty;

·         Windfall sites are included in the 5 year supply as they are picked up as planning permissions; and

·         The inclusion of a windfall allowance and non-implementation rate present risk and can potentially impact the deliverability of the 5-year supply.

SCENARIO 2 – inclusion of a pure windfall allowance and non-implementation rate

2.1        The methodology for this calculation remains the same as scenario 1, except for the inclusion of a pure windfall allowance and non-implementation rate. These have been calculated based on historic trends (see Figure 1) and therefore is not an accurate prediction of the future.

2.2        For the pure windfall allowance, completion data for the last 5 years is filtered to remove greenfield sites, previously identified sites, Urban Capacity Study 2002 and 2006 sites, SHLAA 2009 sites and allocations from the MBWLP 2000.

2.3        For the non-implementation rate, a list of expired planning permissions for the last 5 years is generated, which demonstrates the units that have not been built.

2.4        The annual averages of both sets of data are then multiplied by 5 years for inclusion in the 5 year housing land supply calculations.

Figure 1